March Madness bold predictions: Upsets, chaos and ejections

Jordan Mendoza, USA TODAYMon, March 16, 2026 at 8:47 AM UTC

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March Madness is all about chaos, and it’s time to embrace it in the 2026 edition of the Big Dance.

The NCAA Tournament bracket is out, revealing the paths all 68 teams need to make the Final Four. The fun part is you can forget what happens on-paper because there are bound to be some wild things going on when the action tips off.

From Cinderella stories to stunning buzzer-beating shots, it’s impossible to guess all that will happen, which is why there needs to be some bold predictions when filling out your bracket. Luckily, we’ll come up with some — and back up why it can happen. Will all of them be true? Likely not, but that’s what makes March Madness so thrilling.

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Miami Ohio wins multiple games

There was so much talk about whether the 31-1 RedHawks should be in the field, with questions of their legitimacy given how relatively easy the schedule was. Well, Miami (Ohio) can put it all to rest by advancing out of the first round.

Sure it didn’t play a tough schedule, but this is a fun team to watch play, and they can challenge just about anyone. The offense is one of the best and in the country, always going on hot streaks that can make it tough to stop. A relentless attack powers the RedHawks toward its first tournament win this century, and by taking down Tennessee, it should silence the doubters.

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Half of SEC teams lose in first round

The SEC got the most teams in with 10, but it’s not anywhere as strong as it was in 2025, setting up for a rather disappointing turnout.

It’s hard to imagine getting another eight teams to reach the Sweet 16, given so many squads have tough roads to make it to the second weekend. The path to the second round also seems tricky, and besides Florida and Arkansas, it’s hard to trust the rest of the SEC. That leads to just four teams making it to the second round.

That won’t be something to gloat about, but don’t worry, the conference is still in good shape to get a representative to the Final Four.

March Madness region breakdown: South | East | Midwest | West

Mick Cronin, Dan Hurley both get ejected

Get ready for a passionate second-round game between Connecticut and UCLA. The two teams have two of the notable "passionate" coaches in Dan Hurley and Mick Cronin, and they’ll put on an antics masterclass in Philadelphia.

In an exciting back-and-forth game, both head men get fiery about what’s unfolding. Whether it’s a foul or missed call, these two let the officials know how they truly feel, not holding back as the referees discipline them, ultimately leading to both being sent to the locker room early.

Bonus points if they end up arguing with each other, and watch out for the losing postgame news conference.

A Cinderella run to the Sweet 16

There was no belle of the ball in 2025 as no team seeded No. 11 or higher made the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007. It really took away some of the magic, but expect it to be back this time around.

One of those teams will make it to the second weekend and become a major story. What makes it easier to see is while there are some real title contenders at the top, there is a huge gap behind the top two seeds, very susceptible to being upset. There are also some great candidates to go on that run, including South Florida, VCU, High Point, Akron and Miami (Ohio).

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Kansas misses Sweet 16… again

Last season was the third straight time Kansas didn’t get a third tournament game. A rarity for the Jayhawks, but there’s no way it happens a fourth time, right?

Think again. For as good as Kansas has shown it can be, it’s a mystery what team can show up on a given day. One day it’s taking down top-ranked teams, the next it’s falling to non-tournament teams. The inconsistency plagues Bill Self again, and if Kansas avoids a first round upset, it’s unable to get advance past the second round.

Four straight tournaments without a Sweet 16 appearance is unprecedented in the storied history of the Jayhawks. Yet, things have been weird ever since winning it all in 2022, and the questions will continue to linger around Self.

AJ Dybantsa powers BYU to second weekend

While BYU underwent a puzzling slump to end the regular season that severely hurt what seed it ended up being, one thing remained constant: Its star was hooping, and he’ll come up big for the Cougars.

Dybantsa has been one of the most electric players in the sport, leading the country with 25.3 points per game. Even though he’s had to carry a heavier burden with injuries, it hasn’t stopped him, scoring at least 20 points in 13 straight games while causing headaches for defenses.

With the lights shining bright, Dybantsa continues his hot streak to push BYU toward a successful first weekend, reaching the Sweet 16 back-to-back years for the first time in program history.

Chaos region? The Midwest

Looking for a region to completely change brackets? Look at the Midwest.

There are so many legit upset candidates throughout the bracket, with a chance for multiple double-digit seeds advancing. It wouldn’t be crazy to see some double-digit second round matchups, paving the way for a Cinderella run with at least three teams seeded nine or lower in the Sweet 16.

Braden Smith surges past assist record

Purdue’s point guard is set to become the all-time assist leader, entering the NCAA Tournament two more away from breaking Bobby Hurley’s record. There’s no doubt he gets it done, but the question is: how far does he go?

Well, it all depends on how far the Boilermakers advance. Play more, more chances for dimes.

Fortunately, Purdue is peaking at the right time, paving the way for multiple wins in the tournament. It allows Smith to stack up more assists, and he ends his career at least 25 assists ahead of Hurley.

All No. 1 seeds make Final Four

We’re sticking to our guns. Even though conference tournament week tested them, all four No. 1 seeds will make the Final Four for back-to-back years.

The top seeds in Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida really separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Not only did they win a lot, but they did it against quality opponents, making up the only squads to win at least 12 Quad 1 games. That’s also come with them consistently putting teams away and leaving no doubt in their contests, with the four included in the top eight teams in scoring margin.

It won’t be a cakewalk through the bracket, and expect some close calls for an early exit. However, the Blue Devils, Wolverines, Wildcats and Gators will be clutch, culminating with an epic meeting in Indianapolis.

Duke doesn’t win it all

The Blue Devils are the top overall seed, and will try to be the second consecutive one to win the national championship. They get to the Final Four, but don’t hoist the title.

Duke has one of the toughest paths to the title, with the East Region loaded with talent. It is more than capable of winning those games, but they will take a toll on the top seed. This team won’t be as healthy as it can be, and it ultimately is its downfall. This isn’t saying it misses the national championship, but Duke isn’t victorious.

Jon Scheyer has handled the transition perfectly, but last winning a title in 2015, this is the longest Duke has gone without a championship since winning its first in 1991. The streak continues.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness predictions: 10 bold picks for NCAA tournament bracket

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